Spring Don't Get No Respect

Like a Rodney Dangerfield joke, the economy in spring don't get no respect. Retailers believe US second quarter sales will be so ugly, they want to put a bag over its head.

Not so fast.

The US economy grew at 1.8% in the first quarter 2011, and predictions for the second quarter are better than that even after various economic analysts lowered their predictions by a half a percentage point or so. Bank of America is predicting a 2% growth rate, down from 2.8%, JP Morgan is forecasting 2.5%, down from 3%, Goldman Sachs is calling for a 3.0% growth rate, down from 3.5%, and Deutsche Bank is predicting 3.2%, down from 3.7%.

Those numbers indicate a recovering economy rather than a booming one, and job growth will be as sluggish as sales, but the arrow is pointing upwards, not downwards.

But it seems retailers are looking forward past the summer to back to school -- the second biggest selling season of the year. Already, Wal-Mart CEO Mike Duke asserted computer tablet sales will be big business this year come August and September, a thought echoed by other major chains.

However, these tech gains may be coming at the expense of traditional apparel. In the last numbers available from the National Retail Federation, US shoppers budgeted an average $225.47 for clothes in the 2010 back-to-school season versus $231.80 in 2007, but their computer budget rose to $181.61 in 2010 from 2007's $129.24.