Push-Me, Pull-Me Consumers

Consumer schizophrenia continued to be reflected in polls. This time, the Bloomberg gauge of economic expectations fell from -16 in May to to -31 in June, the lowest level since March 2009. Yet Bloomberg's Consumer Comfort Index rose from -45.9 to -44.

What gives?

Bloomberg analysts note consumers are concerned about keeping or getting jobs as well as inflation eating away at their income. As for jobs, the Labor Department reported jobless claims fell from to 414,000 from 440,000 for the week ending June 11. As for inflation, the Consumer Price Index, the government's key inflation measure, rose 0.2% in May and 3.6% over the past 12 months, although core CPI, which deletes food and energy prices, rose 1.5% over the past 12 months, the biggest increase for core CPI since January 2010. According to Bloomberg, that rise in Comfort is a response to the decrease in gas prices.

Moderating gas prices and steady gains in employment should boost the economy, but the Commerce Department reported that May 2011 retail sales fell 0.2%, to $387.1 billion, from April. Most of that drop came from fizzling auto sales -- take out cars and retail sales actually rose 0.3% in May. No worries, shoppers. Retailers will muddle through...because increases are still better than decreases.