June Trends: Conference Board

Help Wanted Online
The Conference Board Employment Help Wanted Online Index decreased in June 2011, with online advertised vacancies falling by 99,700 to 4.372 million, after a decline of 124,00 in April 2011. The Board noted the national trend in labor demand, while still positive, definitely slowed in the last few months as gains in one month are partially offset by a pullback in advertised vacancies in the next -- shades of 2010. The current number of advertised vacancies is close to the monthly 4.5 million posted just prior to the recession, but in May just over three unemployed workers sought jobs for each vacancy -- double the number of 1.5 unemployed for every advertised vacancy just prior to the recession. The optimism expressed in the Employment Trends Index is bringing back people looking for work.

Consumer Confidence
Hence the catch-22 of spending and employment. Employed people buy more, which generates more jobs, which generates more spending. Unemployment reverses that spiral. According to the Conference Board, Consumer Confidence declined in June 2011 to 58.5, down from 61.7 in May 2011. The Board noted consumers consider both current business and labor market conditions in less favorble light than in May, and fewer consumers than last month foresee conditions improving over the next six months. Inflation fears eased considerably in June, but concerns about income prospects increased. Given the combination of uneasiness about the economic outlook and future earnings, consumers are likely to continue weighing their spending decisions quite carefully.